Contemporary democracies are fairly resilient to the onset of autocratization: Since 1994, 54% have not experienced backsliding. Yet, democracies rarely survive if autocratization sets in: Roughly 80% break down.
Breakdown does not prevent a return of democracy: Roughly 50% recover shortly after a democratic breakdown in a U-turn episode. Recovering of democracy in U-turns – or "bounce back" resilience – is the most common type of democratic resilience.
Active, stiff, and coordinated resistance against autocratization from pro-democracy actors and institutions is key to making a U-turn. Acting in early stages of autocratization seems critical – within one electoral cycle (4-6 years) after the onset.

No democracy has managed to revert democratic breakdown and “bounce back” to its previous levels if autocratization episode lasted for more than a decade. After 10 years, autocratization tends to consolidate autocratic rule and reversing the process becomes close to impossible. It is thus particularly important for international democracy support and protection actors to raise awareness among domestic prodemocracy actors about the gradual nature of contemporary autocratization and the importance of acting fast.

Whilst autocratization is common and threats to democracy are real, U-turns are also on the rise (Angiolillo et al. 2024). This suggests that consolidating authoritarian rule is becoming a lot more difficult than in the past. Democratic resilience is unprecedented in historical terms, and opposition to anti-democratic incumbents might further increase in the future.

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