From Rivalry to Cooperation? Turkey’s Energy Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Eastern Mediterranean today is a sea where energy riches lie beneath contested waters and every new discovery reshapes old rivalries. Over the past decade, natural gas fields off the coasts of Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus have turned the region into one of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive energy frontiers. Turkey is right at the center as the largest coastal state, with ambitions of becoming a regional energy hub. 

Turkey’s assertive stance in the recent years has enhanced disputes with neighbors. Tensions spiked when Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and Egypt launched the East-Med Gas Forum in 2019 without including Turkey. Drilling disputes and naval standoffs followed. The unresolved Cyprus issue, where Turkey supports recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, added further fuel. By 2020, the Mediterranean looked less like a zone of shared prosperity and more like a region of clashing interests. 

Since 2021 the picture has started to shift. Facing economic pressures and changing regional priorities, Turkey toned down its assertive approach. Turkey slowed down drilling in contested waters and turned instead to diplomacy. Relations with Egypt improved dramatically, culminating in high-level visits and energy cooperation deals in 2024. Earthquake diplomacy softened ties with Greece, leading to new agreements and dialogue channels. With Israel, the situation remains tense due to the Gaza conflict, though a lasting peace could reopen doors to trade and even energy projects. 

The Cyprus question remains the thorniest issue. Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots still disagree fundamentally on sovereignty while attempts at reunification have failed. Yet even here, small steps like joint committees on resource management could pave the way for cooperation, if outside powers such as the EU act as facilitators. 

Why does this matter beyond the region? For Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean is more than a regional dispute: it’s a potential lifeline for energy diversification at a time when reducing reliance on Russia is a priority. The EU has floated the idea of reviving energy dialogues with Turkey and appointing a Commissioner for the Mediterranean to foster new partnerships. 

What To Expect Next? 

Recent developments point to a mixed picture. In 2025, the Greece–Turkey relationship saw both progress and setbacks. On the positive side, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to dialogue over maritime disputes, with Greece stressing that its Maritime Spatial Planning was not meant to provoke EEZ tensions. Yet tensions resurfaced when Ankara filed its own maritime zoning plan with UNESCO, reviving claims over large parts of the Aegean Sea. Meanwhile, Egypt and Cyprus advanced key energy projects. Agreements were signed to develop the Cronos and Aphrodite gas fields. Turkey and Egypt also entered a new era of cooperation regarding LNG storage and regasification. Finally, Israel deepened its footprint in regional energy trade as, in August 2025, operators of the Israeli gas field Leviathan signed a record gas export deal with Egypt, doubling exports through 2040.  

Ultimately, the Eastern Mediterranean is at a crossroads. If rivalries persist, the region risks further fragmentation. But if reconciliation efforts hold, energy could shift from being a source of division to becoming a catalyst for cooperation and security. Overall, recent positive moves and potential for further cooperation are set to strengthen the Eastern Mediterranean’s role in European energy diversification. 

Below are three alternative visuals that may accompany the blog post.  

Source: Johnson, Keith. 2019. Club Med: Israel, Egypt, and Others Form New Natural Gas Group. Foreign Policy.   

Source: Isashenko, Daria and Erol Kaymak. 2024. Turkey’s Strategic Autonomy in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. SWP Comment.  

Source: Marcus, Jonathan. 2020. The Eastern Mediterranean Tinderbox: Why Greek-Turkish Rivalries Have Expanded. BBC.