A new scenario report, first presented at this year’s Munich Security Conference, examines how the global order could evolve by 2035. Using a structured foresight approach, the study explores possible shifts in international power dynamics and their implications for Europe.

The report was developed by the Bertelsmannstiftung in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and a diverse group of experts from politics, business, and academia. Together, they identified six conceivable global power configurations for 2035. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but strategic tools designed to support long-term thinking and decision-making.

The six scenarios range from renewed unipolar systems — led either by China or the United States — to bipolar arrangements between the two powers, as well as multiple-bloc and polycentric orders in which influence is distributed among states, networks, corporations, and technology actors.

The full report, “Global Block Formation? Implications of the New World (Dis)Order for Europe,” is available for download here.