On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.

Various definitions of fragility coexist, but they all share a common trait: describing contexts that are particularly vulnerable to shocks and exhibit limited resilience. These shocks can arise from armed conflicts, climatic incidents such as droughts or floods, or from the collapse of systems that had become dependent on international aid. Over time, EU international aid, whether through humanitarian assistance, early recovery efforts, or stabilisation initiatives has been working as a buffer to absorb or balance changes in these systems. In the context of a global aid funding crunch, shifting development funds away from fragile areas is likely to prevent populations from developing essential resilience mechanisms that have allowed them to resist shocks until now. Without external support, vulnerable populations may sometimes have no choice but to develop negative coping mechanisms such as joining extremist groups, abandoning their land to seek a more appropriate environment, or increasingly competing for resources and thus generating tensions with neighbours. Supporting fragile communities is therefore in Europe’s interest.